Wall Street Sinks as Oil Surges Past $100 on Iran Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 739.42 points, or 1.56%, closing at 46,677.85 on Thursday — its first close below 47,000 this year. The S&P 500 lost 1.52% to settle at 6,672.62, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.78% to end at 22,311.98. All three indices posted their lowest closing levels of 2026.

The selloff was broad-based, with over 72.8% of U.S. issues declining during the session. Industrials, consumer discretionary, and technology stocks led the downturn as the surging oil prices rippled through virtually every sector of the economy. Cruise lines were hit especially hard, with Royal Caribbean shedding 5% and Carnival losing 6%.

Among the few bright spots, chemical and agriculture firms rallied on supply disruption tailwinds. CF Industries climbed 7.25%, Dow Inc. gained 5.09%, and Mosaic Company rose 4.77% as investors bet that constrained global supply chains would benefit fertilizer and commodity producers.

United Airlines Holdings saw its share price plunge a staggering 33% in a single session on Thursday — one of the steepest single-day declines in major airline history. The collapse was triggered by a dual blow: Brent crude breaching the $100-per-barrel mark and the carrier's decision to withdraw its 2026 financial guidance in response to the rapidly deteriorating cost environment.

United does not hedge its fuel costs, leaving it fully exposed to the roughly 58% surge in jet fuel spot prices, which reached $3.95 per gallon — up from a February average of $2.50. The lack of hedging, combined with the uncertainty of how long the Strait of Hormuz disruption will persist, made it impossible for management to maintain credible forward projections.

The contagion spread across the broader travel sector. Delta Air Lines and other carriers slumped significantly, while Carnival Corporation shares tumbled 6%. Wall Street analysts noted that the airline sector is now in bear market territory, with many carriers down 30% or more year-to-date as the geopolitical crisis continues to erode margins.

Nvidia released Nemotron 3 Super on Thursday, a 120-billion-parameter open-weight AI model with a 1-million-token context window designed for running complex agentic AI systems at scale. The model achieved a record 478 output tokens per second, making it the fastest in its class according to Artificial Analysis benchmarks.

The release positions Nvidia as a direct competitor in the foundation model space, not just in the hardware that powers AI. According to benchmarks, Nemotron 3 Super placed above gpt-oss-120B but behind Gemini 3.1 Pro and GPT-5.4 on overall quality scores. Financial analysts estimate that capturing even 10% of the foundation model market could add $50 billion annually to Nvidia's revenue within three years.

The timing is strategic, arriving just days before Nvidia's GTC 2026 conference running March 16-19 in San Jose, where CEO Jensen Huang is expected to outline the company's broader AI vision. Nvidia shares fell 2.3% on Thursday, weighed down by the broader market selloff rather than any negative reaction to the model launch itself.

Dollar General reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.93, easily beating the consensus estimate of $1.57, while revenue of $10.91 billion topped the expected $10.78 billion. Net income surged 122.9% compared to the prior-year period, when the discount retailer earned just $0.87 per share amid operational challenges.

Despite the strong beat, shares fell roughly 7% on Thursday as investors focused on the company's cautious 2026 guidance. Dollar General projected fiscal 2026 net sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2%, same-store sales growth of 2.2% to 2.7%, and earnings per share of $7.10 to $7.35 — a range that some analysts viewed as conservative given the strong Q4 performance.

Wall Street was divided on the stock's outlook. Wolfe Research reiterated its rating on the back of the strong results, while other analysts noted that competition in the discount retail space shows no signs of easing. According to Dollar General's earnings call, management emphasized investments in store improvements and supply chain optimization as priorities for the year ahead.