Markets Rebound from Iran War Shock as Oil Surges 9% and Defense Stocks Hit Record Highs
U.S. equities staged a dramatic intraday recovery on Monday after joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran triggered a 9% surge in crude oil, a safe-haven run in gold, and a sweeping rally in defense stocks — while MongoDB cratered 24% despite beating earnings.
S&P 500 Erases 1.2% Drop to Close Near Flat as Investors Buy the Dip After Iran Strikes
U.S. equity markets endured a wild session on Monday, March 2, 2026, ultimately closing nearly unchanged after a sharp early sell-off triggered by a weekend joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign targeting Iran. The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.2% intraday before clawing back virtually all of those losses, closing up just 0.04% at 6,881.62. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.36% to finish at 22,748.86, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 73.14 points, or 0.15%, to 48,904.78.
Investors initially reacted with alarm as the White House described the operation as a "preemptive defensive measure" following confirmation that Iranian leadership had been neutralized. However, dip-buyers — particularly in large-cap tech — stepped in early in the trading day. Shares of Nvidia and Microsoft, seen as cash-rich and conflict-resilient, led the recovery alongside surging energy and defense names.
Brent crude oil settled up roughly 9% at $79.41 per barrel after briefly touching $82.37, its highest level since January 2025, on fears that the conflict could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for approximately 15 million barrels of crude per day. Gold briefly reclaimed $5,400 per troy ounce before paring gains, rising about 2% on the session as investors sought safe-haven assets. Analysts warned that a sustained oil price above $100 per barrel would represent a qualitatively different shock to the global economy.
Defense Stocks Surge to Record Highs as Iran Conflict and Trump's $1.5 Trillion Budget Fuel a "Security Supercycle"
Aerospace and defense contractors posted some of Monday's biggest gains as the geopolitical consequences of the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran became clear. Lockheed Martin shares rose approximately 6% on the session, extending a year-to-date gain of roughly 36% and pushing the stock near $698 per share. Northrop Grumman gained close to 5.9%, closing at $766.81. Shares of Raytheon, L3Harris, and other sector names also advanced sharply, with the broader aerospace and defense ETFs outperforming all other sectors.
The rally was powered by two reinforcing catalysts. The immediate trigger was the Iran conflict itself, which raised the likelihood of a prolonged and costly military engagement requiring sustained procurement of munitions, aircraft, and surveillance systems. A second, structural catalyst came from President Donald Trump's recently proposed defense budget of $1.5 trillion for fiscal year 2027 — representing an approximately 50% increase over 2026 spending levels — which analysts described as a generational funding commitment to military modernization.
Market commentary circulating Monday characterized the current environment as a "Security Supercycle" — a multi-year period of elevated defense investment driven by simultaneous pressures in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Indo-Pacific. Oil stocks also benefited from the Iran conflict: Exxon Mobil and Chevron shares each rose approximately 4%, while ConocoPhillips advanced more than 5%, as higher crude prices tend to directly lift the profitability of integrated oil majors.
MongoDB Beats Q4 Estimates with 27% Revenue Growth, But Stock Falls 24% on Executive Departures
MongoDB reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results after the close on Monday that handily beat analyst expectations — yet the stock fell nearly 24% in extended trading, one of the sharpest post-earnings declines in the company's history. The database software maker posted revenue of $695.1 million, up 27% year over year and above the consensus estimate of approximately $674 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $1.65, exceeding estimates of $1.46. The company's Atlas cloud database product grew 29% year over year, and MongoDB added 2,700 net new customers during the quarter.
The selloff appeared driven primarily by a simultaneous leadership overhaul. Cedric Pech, President of Field Operations, and Paul Capombassis, Chief Revenue Officer, were both announced as departing the company. The dual loss of senior commercial executives overseeing global sales raised investor concern about potential disruption to MongoDB's go-to-market operations. MongoDB also reported $176.7 million in free cash flow for the quarter.
Looking ahead, management provided fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance of $2.86 billion to $2.90 billion, implying 16%–18% growth. Effective March 3, 2026, Erica Volini — formerly of Deloitte and ServiceNow — joins as Chief Customer Officer. Evercore ISI separately raised its S&P 500 earnings-per-share forecast to $304, from $296, after the broader Q4 2025 earnings season showed 12.8% year-over-year EPS growth with 95% of market cap having reported.
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